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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU AUG 03 2000
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS.  STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS KEEPING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
SEPARATED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION AND THE OUTFLOW LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE OCEAN IS WARM...ABOUT 26 OR 27 DEGREES
...AND THE SHEAR IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SLOW STRENGTHENING
OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
BECAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED...THE INITIAL MOTION
IS UNCERTAIN.  BEST ESTIMATE IS 270/11.  THERE IS A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION WHICH IS FORECAST
TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THIS PATTERN WOULD PROVIDE A WESTERN STEERING
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  BASED ON THE FORECAST STRENGTHENING
OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH...MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TRACK OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/2100Z 16.5N 115.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     04/0600Z 16.5N 117.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     04/1800Z 16.8N 119.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     05/0600Z 17.0N 121.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     05/1800Z 17.0N 123.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     06/1800Z 17.0N 127.5W    55 KTS
 
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