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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU AUG 03 2000
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY AND IS
BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E AT THIS TIME.
THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT EASTERLY
SHEAR IS KEEPING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER ON THE EASTERN EDGE AND MOST
OF THE OUTFLOW LIMITED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  BECAUSE THE
DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE...SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN THE
INITIAL LOCATION MAY BE NECESSARY.  THE OCEAN IS ABOUT 26 OR 27
DEGREES AND THE EASTERLY SHEAR IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
STRENGTHENING.  THE DEPRESSION MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.
 
BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/11. THERE IS A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION WHICH IS FORECAST
TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THIS PATTERN WOULD PROVIDE A WESTERN STEERING
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  BASED ON THE FORECAST STRENGTHENING
OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH...MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TRACK OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/1500Z 16.0N 114.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     04/0000Z 16.0N 116.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     04/1200Z 16.0N 118.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     05/0000Z 16.0N 120.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     05/1200Z 16.0N 123.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     06/1200Z 16.0N 127.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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