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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT JUL 29 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10 AND THE MOTION OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS MAY BE A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WESTWARD.  THE FORECAST TRACK
IS 265/10 UNTIL DISSIPATION WITH THE 12Z AVIATION MODEL RUN SHOWING
A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE FORECAST TRACK
IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER FLARE-
UP IS UNLIKELY AS ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR
DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/2100Z 20.2N 120.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     30/0600Z 20.1N 122.2W    25 KTS
24HR VT     30/1800Z 20.1N 124.3W    20 KTS
36HR VT     31/0600Z 20.0N 126.4W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     31/1800Z DISSIPATED
 
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