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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT JUL 29 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE CONTINUES AT 275/10.  THE FORECAST TRACK
IS BASED ON THE SAME REASONING AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...DUE WEST
UNTIL DISSIPATION...UNDER THE STEERING OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  AND
THIS IS THE CONSENSUS OF MOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE.

AS SUGGESTED ON THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE IS BEEN A FLARE-UP
OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS
DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COLDER WATER.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/1500Z 20.5N 119.5W    35 KTS
12HR VT     30/0000Z 20.5N 121.1W    30 KTS
24HR VT     30/1200Z 20.5N 123.2W    25 KTS
36HR VT     31/0000Z 20.5N 125.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     31/1200Z DISSIPATED 
 
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