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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI JUL 28 2000
 
THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING AROUND THE CENTER
OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA...BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR STEADY
WEAKENING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...AND A CURRENT T-
NUMBER OF 3.0...45 KT...FROM KGWC.
 
THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE SCATTER IN THE SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS
OWING TO THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER. HOWEVER...EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE RAPIDLY WEAKENING. AFTER 24 TO 36 HOURS...THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
OFFICAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED
THE TREND OF THE UKMET IN SLOWING DOWN THE SYSTEM.
 
THE SHIPS AND GFDL CONTINUE THE TREND OF RAPIDLY WEAKENING EMILIA AS
THE CYCLONE PASSES OVER COLD...LESS THAN 23C...SSTS AFTER 18 TO 24
HOURS. EMILIA MAY NOT EVEN BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36 HOURS
ACCORDING TO THE GFDL MODEL.
 
FORECASTER STEWART/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/2100Z 20.4N 116.3W    45 KTS
12HR VT     29/0600Z 20.9N 117.9W    40 KTS
24HR VT     29/1800Z 21.4N 119.7W    35 KTS
36HR VT     30/0600Z 21.7N 121.5W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     30/1800Z 21.5N 123.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     31/1800Z 21.5N 125.4W    20 KTS...DISSIPATED
 
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