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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI JUL 28 2000
 
EMILIA LOOKS DISTINCTLY UNHEALTHY AT THE MOMENT...AS MOST OF THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED.  WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM AFWA...TAFB...AND SAB ARE 65 KT...55 KT...AND 55 KT
RESPECTIVELY...THE LACK OF CONVECTION AND THE MOTION OVER COOLER
WATER SUGGESTS A SOMEWHAT LOWER INTENSITY.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
SET TO 50 KT IN THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/12.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO...AND NORTHWEST
MEXICO.  THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG 120W N OF 17N. 
THIS COMBINATION SUGGESTS A CONTINUED NORTHWEST MOTION.  HOWEVER...
SINCE EMILIA IS MOVING INTO TO COOLER WATER AND SHOULD WEAKEN...LOW
LEVEL STEERING SHOULD EVENTUALLY DOMINATE.  THIS WOULD TURN THE
CYCLONE WESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH THE LATTER
IDEA...CALLING FOR AN INITIAL NORTHWEST MOTION FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WESTWARD TURN.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT EMILIA IS ENTRAINING DRY AIR FROM
THE TROUGH TO THE WEST.  A COMBINATION OF THIS AND THE COOLER WATER
MEANS THE STORM IS IN TROUBLE.  THE QUESTION IS HOW FAST WILL IT
WEAKEN?  STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR SLOW WEAKENING...
WITH EMILIA SURVIVING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE (EVEN TROPICAL STORM)
THROUGH 72 HR.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL AND GFDN BOTH DISSIPATE
THE SYSTEM IN LESS THAN 60 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A
FASTER WEAKENING THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH NOT AS FAST AS
THE GFDL AND GFDN.  HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE NOT BE TOO SURPRISING IF
EMILIA DISSIPATED BEFORE 72 HR.

TROPICAL STORM WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ON THE BASIS OF SSM/I
AND QUIKSCAT DATA.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0900Z 19.8N 114.4W    50 KTS
12HR VT     28/1800Z 20.6N 116.0W    45 KTS
24HR VT     29/0600Z 21.3N 118.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     29/1800Z 21.8N 120.1W    40 KTS
48HR VT     30/0600Z 22.0N 122.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     31/0600Z 22.0N 125.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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