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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU JUL 27 2000

EMILIA IS NOT LOOKING TOO IMPRESSIVE ON IR IMAGERY AT THIS TIME. 
THERE IS A LACK OF DISTINCT BANDING FEATURES.  ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...OVERALL THE
CENTRAL FEATURES ARE RATHER RAGGED-LOOKING.  IT IS PRESUMED THAT
THIS IS A TEMPORARY CONDITION AND SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS IN PREVIOUS
ADVISORIES...AND SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL.  AS DISCUSSED
EARLIER...IF THE STORM TURNS MORE SHARPLY TO THE LEFT THAN FORECAST
THEN IT WILL REMAIN OVER WARMER WATERS AND COULD STRENGTHEN MORE
THAN SHOWN HERE.

THE CENTER IS NOT WELL-DEFINED EITHER ON IR OR MICROWAVE IMAGERY. 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/8.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL
SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT
3 DAYS.  WITH THIS PATTERN...A MORE WESTWARD STEERING CURRENT IS
LIKELY TO EVOLVE.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TURNS THE SYSTEM
GRADUALLY WESTWARD...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE MODEL
TRACKS...EXCEPT FOR THE U. K. MET. OFFICE AND GFDL MODELS WHICH ARE
A DEGREE OR TWO TO THE SOUTH OF MY FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0900Z 16.8N 110.2W    45 KTS
12HR VT     27/1800Z 17.3N 111.3W    50 KTS
24HR VT     28/0600Z 18.0N 113.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     28/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W    65 KTS
48HR VT     29/0600Z 19.0N 117.2W    65 KTS
72HR VT     30/0600Z 19.0N 122.0W    60 KTS
 
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