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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED JUL 26 2000
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E HAS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ORGANIZE
DURING THE DAY...AT LEAST IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.  WHILE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT 18Z...AN
INNER CONVECTIVE REGION HAS SINCE FORMED WITH A RAGGED OUTER BAND
WRAPPED MORE THAN HALF WAY AROUND IT.  ON THIS BASIS...THE
DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO 35 KT TROPICAL STORM EMILIA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/7.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL RIDGING NORTHWEST OF EMILIA.  THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY TURN THE STORM WESTWARD.  TRACK
GUIDANCE BASED ON THE AVN MODEL GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO.
HOWEVER...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS INDICATE A SOUTHWESTERLY TURN.  IT IS
UNCLEAR WHAT COULD CAUSE THIS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
TRACKS OF THE AVN-BASED MODELS.
 
WHILE EMILIA SHOWS AN EXCELLENT BANDING PATTERN AT THIS TIME...THE
CYCLONE IS LARGE AND INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION IS
NOT VERY CONCENTRATED.  THUS...IT IS NOT LIKELY TO SPIN UP AS
RAPIDLY AS DANIEL DID.  THE SHIPS MODEL TAKES EMILIA TO NEAR MINIMAL
HURRICANE IN ABOUT 48 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND MAKES EMILIA A HURRICANE IN 36 HR...FOLLOWED BY
WEAKENING OVER COLDER WATER.  HOWEVER...IF EMILIA TAKES LONGER TO
CONSOLIDATE THAN FORECAST...IT MAY NOT REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH
BEFORE IT REACHES THE COLD WATER. 
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/2100Z 16.0N 108.7W    35 KTS
12HR VT     27/0600Z 16.5N 109.8W    45 KTS
24HR VT     27/1800Z 17.3N 111.5W    55 KTS
36HR VT     28/0600Z 18.2N 113.5W    65 KTS
48HR VT     28/1800Z 19.0N 116.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     29/1800Z 19.5N 120.5W    60 KTS
 
 
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