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WTPA41 PHFO 040300
TCDCP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  47
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST THU AUG 03 2000

DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO JUST SOUTH OF A
WELL EXPOSED LLCC. SINCE THERE IS NO CURVED BANDING... THE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 1.5 OR 30 KT IS BASED ON PATTERN T RATHER THAN
DATA T. CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z POSITION IS GOOD.

DANIEL APPEARS TO BE TURNING TOWARDS THE NORTH AS IT PUNCHES THROUGH
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TURNING DANIEL
TO THE RIGHT BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AT 36 HOURS. THE TRACK IS CLOSE TO
THE LAST FORECAST TRACK AND TO THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS. THE BETA
ADVECTION MODELS LIE FARTHER TO THE WEST. 
 
CRAIG
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/0300Z 31.8N 169.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     04/1200Z 33.2N 170.3W    30 KTS
24HR VT     05/0000Z 35.8N 171.1W    25 KTS
36HR VT     05/1200Z 39.3N 170.9W    DISSIPATED