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WTPA41 PHFO 030900
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
11 PM HST WED AUG 02 2000
 
DANIEL CONTINUES TO RETAIN CONVECTION AS IT HAS ALL ALONG...BUT NOW
THE CONVECTION IS ON ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS IS KEEPING IT FROM
WEAKENING AS RAPIDLY AS MIGHT OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED...AND WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO PULL DANIEL TOWARD THE CONVECTION SIDE OF ITS OTHERWISE
MORE LOGICAL TRACK. DANIEL IS OVER COLDER WATER NOW HOWEVER AND CAN
BE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BUT AS LONG AS
THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FUEL THE LOWER PRESSURE AT THE CENTER OF
DANIELS CIRCULATION...WEAKENING WILL BE SLOWED. THE CURRENT TRACK IS
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...INFLUENCED BY THE FINALLY VIABLE GFDL
MODEL OUTPUT...BUT STILL TO THE WEST OF THE GFDL DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION. THE MRF MODEL EVENTUALLY
TAKES THE SYSTEM EXTRATROPICAL...AS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE TURN OF
THE TRACK TO A MORE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST DIRECTION AFTER 48
HOURS. OTHER MODELS SEEM TO LOSE THE STORM...BUT ADD ITS ENERGY IN
ANY CASE TO THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO THE WEST OF THE DATELINE AT
HIGHER LATITUDES. WHICHEVER MAY BE THE CASE...THE SYSTEM WILL DROP
BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO... AND
THEN BE MERGED INTO MID LATITUDE SYNOPTICS.
 
FARRELL
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/0900Z 29.2N 165.7W    35 KTS
12HR VT     03/1800Z 30.5N 167.7W    35 KTS
24HR VT     04/0600Z 32.2N 170.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     04/1800Z 34.5N 171.6W    30 KTS
48HR VT     05/0600Z 37.3N 172.0W    25 KTS
72HR VT     06/0600Z 43.0N 171.4W    25 KTS