HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

WTPA41 PHFO 010300
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST MON JUL 31 2000

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL UNDERWENT A STRONG PULSATION THIS MORNING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST CAUSED STRONG CONVECTION AROUND
THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM TO FLARE UP. WINDS INCREASED RAPIDLY DURING
THE MORNING AS CONVECTION WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER AND FORMED AN
APPARANT EYE. BY EARLY AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE CONVECTION WAS
COLLAPSING AND THE POSSIBLE EYE CLOSED UP. TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
IS MAINTAINED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE DEEPER CIRCULATION WILL APPARANTLY TAKE DANIEL ON A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK...BETWEEN THE BETA ADVECTION MODEL SHALLOW AND
MEDIUM AND CLOSE TO THE GFDL. LITTLE SHEAR IS EXPECTED OVER THE
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND...SO WEAKENING WILL BE
GRADUAL.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT TROPICAL SYSTEMS CAN BE ERRATIC IN THEIR
MOVEMENT. RESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIEL UNTIL IT IS FAR FROM THE
ISLANDS.
 
FARRELL
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/0300Z 22.2N 154.5W    60 KTS
12HR VT     01/1200Z 22.8N 155.9W    55 KTS
24HR VT     02/0000Z 23.8N 158.1W    55 KTS
36HR VT     02/1200Z 24.9N 160.4W    50 KTS
48HR VT     03/0000Z 26.1N 162.7W    50 KTS
72HR VT     04/0000Z 28.5N 167.4W    45 KTS