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WTPA41 PHFO 291500
TCDCP1
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 AM HST SAT JUL 29 2000

DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE A TEMPORARY DIURNAL FLUCTUATION.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL TREND IS TOWARD WEAKENING...WILL MAINTAIN THE
SYSTEM AT HURRICANE STRENGTH FOR NOW.

INITIAL MOTION IS 280/15. ALL TRACK MODELS...EXCEPT THE DEEP BETA
ADVECTION MODEL... BAMD...AND THE LIMITED AREA BAROTROPIC...LBAR...
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE AND IS
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

THE FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING TO TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS SIMILAR TO
THE INTENSITY MODELS.
 
RESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIEL. DANIEL COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
IF IT MOVES ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
 
FORECASTER HABLUTZEL
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/1500Z 18.9N 145.3W    65 KTS
12HR VT     30/0000Z 19.4N 147.7W    55 KTS
24HR VT     30/1200Z 20.0N 150.6W    50 KTS
36HR VT     31/0000Z 20.6N 153.3W    45 KTS
48HR VT     31/1200Z 21.1N 156.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     01/1200Z 21.8N 161.0W    35 KTS