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WTPA41 PHFO 290300
TCDCP1
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST FRI JUL 28 2000
 
HURRICANE DANIEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE CONTINUING TO TRACK WEST
NORTHWEST. EARLY TODAY THE EYE DISAPPEARED AND MOST OF THE
SURROUNDING DEEP CONVECTION COLLAPSED BUT SOME OF IT APPEARS TO BE
REDEVELOPING. THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 75 TO 90 KT
FROM SAB AND HONOLULU. STRONGEST OUTFLOW HAS BEEN IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT INDICATING DANIEL IS UNDER INCREASED SHEAR ALOFT. 

THE FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL
STORM IN 72 HOURS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIP INTENSITY MODEL.
THE TRACK IS CLOSEST TO THE NOGAPS MODEL AT THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE
MODEL GROUPING. IT IS ASSUMED THAT DANIEL WILL BECOME A SHALLOW
SYSTEM WITH STEERING FROM THE LOWER MORE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

RESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY 
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIEL DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DANIEL
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IF IT MOVES ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS.  
 
FORECASTER LARSON
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0300Z 18.2N 142.1W    75 KTS
12HR VT     29/1200Z 18.6N 144.4W    65 KTS
24HR VT     30/0000Z 19.2N 147.4W    55 KTS
36HR VT     30/1200Z 19.8N 150.4W    45 KTS
48HR VT     31/0000Z 20.4N 153.1W    45 KTS
72HR VT     01/0000Z 21.2N 158.2W    35 KTS