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HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI JUL 28 2000
 
HURRICANE DANIEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DVORAK OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS
HAVE BEEN 5.0...90 KT...FOR THE PAST 4 HOURS...WHICH WAS USED FOR
THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE. SATELITTE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND KGWC ALSO SUPPORT 90 KT. THE INNER CORE CONVECTION
HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS...BUT THE
OVERALL CIRCUALTION REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AS DOES THE OUTFLOW PATTERN.
 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 285/15 BASED ON THE PAST 9 HOURS TREND...BUT THE MOTION
HAS BEEN CLOSER TO 280/14 THE PAST 4 TO 6 HOURS. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR MAY
WEAKEN DANIEL ENOUGH TO DECOUPLE THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM
THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CENTER. THE RESULT WOULD BE MORE WESTWARD
MOTION AS THE SYSTEM EXPERIENCES INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL
EASTERLY STEERING FLOW. THE ONLY MODELS THAT TAKE DANIEL OVER LAND
ARE NOGAPS  AND THE SHALLOW BAM IN ABOUT 60 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECASTS...THE GFDL MODEL THROUGH
36 HOURS...AND THEN THE DEEP AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS AFTERWARDS.

DANIEL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WE
STAYED CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A GOOD
CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND GOOD MOIST UNSTABLE
INFLOW CONTINUING FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WE ARE A LITTLE HESITANT TO
TAKE THE INTENSITY DOWN AS FAST AS THE SHIPS MODEL IS INDICATING.
 
RESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DANIEL DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  SINCE HURRICANE DANIEL WILL BE
TRACKING WEST OF 140W LONGITUDE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...
FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII.
 
FORECASTER STEWART/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/2100Z 17.7N 140.4W    90 KTS
12HR VT     29/0600Z 18.2N 142.7W    85 KTS
24HR VT     29/1800Z 18.8N 145.6W    80 KTS
36HR VT     30/0600Z 19.5N 148.2W    75 KTS
48HR VT     30/1800Z 20.0N 150.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     31/1800Z 21.0N 155.0W    55 KTS

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