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HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI JUL 28 2000
 
ALTHOUGH OVER ROUGHLY 25C WATER...DANIEL HAS SHOWN AN IMPROVED
SATELLITE SIGNATURE DURING THE NIGHT WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS IN THE
EYEWALL.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA
ARE 115 KT...102 KT...AND 102 KT.  ADDITIONALLY...OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 115 KT.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS
ARE INCREASED TO 105 KT IN THIS ADVISORY.

THE EYE HAS WOBBLED SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE PAST 6 HR...AND
SMOOTHING OUT THE WOBBLES GIVES AN INITIAL MOTION OF 280/16.  WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE DANIEL ON A GENERAL WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 48 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT
WEAKENS AS A STRONG TROUGH NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DIGS
SOUTHWARD.  THIS MAY ALLOW A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION.  TRACK FORECAST
GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD...WITH THE GFDN AND UKMET
TAKING DANIEL WELL NORTHEAST OF HAWAII WHILE NOGAPS AND BAMS TAKE IT
TOWARD THE ISLANDS.  ALL MODELS SUGGEST A SLOWER MOTION AFTER 48 HR. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES DANIEL ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK THROUGH 72 HR WITH A GRADUAL DECELERATION...ALTHOUGH NOT AS
MUCH AS INDICATED BY THE GUIDANCE.  THIS TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFDL AND NHC91.

WHILE DANIEL HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AN ELONGATION
OF THE CLOUD PATTERN...CIRRUS FROM THE ITCZ MOVING TOWARD THE
STORM...AND A NEARBY LARGE FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS SUGGESTS THIS
TREND IS TEMPORARY.  A SLOW WEAKENING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HR.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES MAY BE
PRESENT W OF 150W BY 48-72 HR.  SHOULD THIS OCCUR...DANIEL COULD
WEAKEN FASTER DURING THAT TIME THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
 
RESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DANIEL DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY LATER TODAY.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0900Z 16.9N 137.2W   105 KTS
12HR VT     28/1800Z 17.2N 139.6W   100 KTS
24HR VT     29/0600Z 17.8N 142.8W    95 KTS
36HR VT     29/1800Z 18.3N 145.7W    90 KTS
48HR VT     30/0600Z 19.0N 148.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     31/0600Z 20.5N 152.5W    75 KTS
 
 
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