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HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU JUL 27 2000

DESPITE THE RELATIVE COOLER WATER...ASSUMING A CORRECT SST ANALYSIS
...DANIEL HAS NOT WEAKENED AND CONTINUES TO BE A VERY WELL ORGANIZED
HURRICANE WITH A TYPICAL ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND A DISTINCT
EYE.  IN FACT...IT MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER AT THIS TIME. SUBJECTIVE
T-NUMBERS ARE 5.5 WHILE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS HAVE BEEN PEAKING AT 6.0
ON THE DVORAK SCALE.  INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 95 KNOTS BUT
WINDS MAY BE 100 KNOTS.  A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF COOLER WATERS.  HOWEVER...THE SST ARE NOT CHANGING MUCH
AHEAD OF DANIEL...REMAINING ABOUT 25-26 DEGREES.  I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE WEAKENING PROCESS IS SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED.
  
DANIEL IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.  THIS HIGH
IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE.  THEREFORE...THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ON THE SAME TRACK AND A WEAKER DANIEL SHOULD BE APPROACHING
THE BIG ISLAND IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF
THE TRACK MODELS WHICH INDEED ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

RESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DANIEL DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE IN THE
HONOLULU AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.    

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0300Z 16.4N 135.5W    95 KTS
12HR VT     28/1200Z 16.6N 137.8W    95 KTS
24HR VT     29/0000Z 17.0N 141.0W    90 KTS
36HR VT     29/1200Z 17.5N 144.0W    85 KTS
48HR VT     30/0000Z 18.0N 147.0W    80 KTS
72HR VT     31/0000Z 19.5N 153.0W    70 KTS
 
 
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