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HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU JUL 27 2000

A LARGE EYE HAS BECOME EVIDENT ONCE AGAIN IN INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SATELLITE CURRENT T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND KGWC
RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 KT WHICH SUPPORTS THE OFFICAL INTENSITY OF 
90 KT. AN EXPANDING EYE PATTERN FURTHER SUPPORTS A SLIGHT WEAKENING
TREND. DANIEL REMAINS A COMPACT HURRICANE WITH WELL-ESTABLISHED
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
 
EVEN THOUGH THE PAST 6 HOUR MOTION SUGGESTS A DUE WEST JOG IN THE
TRACK...THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/15 BASED ON THE PAST 12 HOURS
TREND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS SHOWS A FLAT SHARP
POLEWARD EDGE TO THE OUTFLOW CIRRUS.  THIS SUGGESTS UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENCE IS OCCURRING ALONG 20N LATITUDE BETWEEN THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND A 200 MB ANTICYCLONE NEAR 24N135W...AS SEEN IN THE
UW-CIMMS WATER VAPOR WIND ANALYSES. THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE IS
LIKELY KEEPING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL STRONGER THAN THE
UKMET MODEL IS INDICATING. THE PAST 24 HOURS OF UKMET AND GFDN MODEL
RUNS HAVE HAD A CONSISTENT 10 DEGREES RIGHT OF TRACK BIAS...WHEREAS
THE GFDL AND NOGAPS HAVE HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON THE GENERAL
DIRECTION...ALBEIT TOO SLOW.  THE OFFICAL FORECAST UPDATES THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD
MOTION AFTERWARDS...AND THE FASTER SPEED OF THE UKMET MODEL WAS
FOLLOWED.
 
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS DANIEL TRACKS ALONG THE 25.5C TO 26C SST
ISOTHERM...THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING. WE
HAVE FOLLOWED THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL CLOSELY...WHICH TAKES DANIEL
DOWN TO MINIMUM HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 72 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART/FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/1500Z 16.0N 132.5W    90 KTS
12HR VT     28/0000Z 16.2N 134.8W    85 KTS
24HR VT     28/1200Z 16.5N 137.9W    80 KTS
36HR VT     29/0000Z 16.9N 141.0W    75 KTS
48HR VT     29/1200Z 17.5N 144.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     30/1200Z 19.0N 150.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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