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HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED JUL 26 2000
 
THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DANIEL CONTINUES TO HAVE A
SMALL BUT DISTINCT EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST.  HOWEVER...THE RING OF CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE IS
WARMER THAN EARLIER TODAY. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
100 KNOTS. WHILE THE SHEAR IS LOW...THE OCEAN IS COOLER.  THEREFORE
A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. 

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST AND PERHAPS STRENGTHEN BEYOND 48 HOURS. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP DANIEL ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.
THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0300Z 15.7N 129.2W   100 KTS
12HR VT     27/1200Z 15.9N 131.5W    95 KTS
24HR VT     28/0000Z 16.3N 134.5W    85 KTS
36HR VT     28/1200Z 16.8N 137.5W    75 KTS
48HR VT     29/0000Z 17.5N 141.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     30/0000Z 19.0N 147.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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