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HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED JUL 26 2000

EVEN THOUGH DANIEL IS STILL A POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH AN IMPRESSIVE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN...THE EYE IS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT AND
THE AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN
DECREASING.  THIS INDICATES THAT A WEAKENING TREND HAS BEGUN.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING AS DANIEL RUNS
ROUGHLY PARALLEL AND NEAR TO THE 25 DEG C SST ISOTHERM.  THE LATEST
SHIPS AND GFDL MODEL RUNS SHOW A SOMEWHAT FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING
THAN SHOWN HERE.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK OR PROGNOSTIC
REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  INITIAL MOTION IS 280/14...
AND A DEEP-LAYER MEAN RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 
THIS IS ALSO QUITE SIMILAR TO THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE GFDL
HURRICANE MODEL.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0900Z 15.0N 124.6W   105 KTS
12HR VT     26/1800Z 15.3N 126.7W   100 KTS
24HR VT     27/0600Z 15.6N 129.5W    95 KTS
36HR VT     27/1800Z 16.0N 132.2W    90 KTS
48HR VT     28/0600Z 16.3N 134.7W    85 KTS
72HR VT     29/0600Z 17.0N 140.0W    75 KTS
 
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