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HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE JUL 25 2000
 
LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOW THAT DANIEL HAS A
DISTINCT EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A REMARKABLY WELL DEFINED AND SYMMETRIC
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AS WELL AS AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL
QUADRANTS.  HOWEVER...IR IMAGES SHOW THAT THE RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE IS WEAKENING AND THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS
ARE EITHER THE SAME OR LOWER THAN EARLIER TODAY.  INITIAL INTENSITY
IS KEPT AT 110 KNOTS AT THIS TIME BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
INDICATED BEYOND 24 HOURS AS  DANIEL MOVES PARALLEL AND CLOSE TO
COOLER WATERS.  THE WEAKENING TREND IS SUGGESTED BY SHIPS...SHIFOR
AND GFDL MODELS.

DANIEL IS MOVING 280/15 AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A WELL ESTABLISHED
SUBTROPICAL HIGH.  BECAUSE NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH OR IN THE POSITION OF THE
RIDGE...DANIEL SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH
72 HOURS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS.  IT IS KIND
OF UNCOMFORTABLE TO SEE THAT THE AVN MODEL MAINTAINS AND DEVELOPS
EVERY SINGLE SPURIOUS VORTEX IN THE FORECAST EXCEPT FOR THE
HURRICANE WHICH IT LOSES AFTER 36 HOURS. THE UK APPEARS TO BE THE
CLEANEST KEEPING DANIEL AS A DISTINCT FEATURE MOVING ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK.    
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0300Z 14.6N 123.2W   110 KTS
12HR VT     26/1200Z 14.9N 125.5W   110 KTS
24HR VT     27/0000Z 15.3N 128.0W   105 KTS
36HR VT     27/1200Z 15.5N 131.0W   100 KTS
48HR VT     28/0000Z 15.8N 133.5W    90 KTS
72HR VT     29/0000Z 16.5N 139.0W    80 KTS
 
 
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