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HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE JUL 25 2000
 
THE 15 NM WIDE EYE OF DANIEL HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS T5.9
(ALMOST 115 KT).  SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 115
KT...102 KT...AND 102 KT FROM AFWA...TAFB...AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.
THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE THUS INCREASED TO 105 KT IN THIS ADVISORY.

THE HURRICANE HAS MOVED A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/17.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS STRAIGHT
FORWARD.  A STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF DANIEL SHOULD KEEP THE
HURRICANE ON A WEST TO JUST NORTH OF WEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HR. 
LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN A LITTLE NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALLOWING SOME DECELERATION AND A LITTLE
MORE NORTHWARD MOTION.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL
WHICH DRASTICALLY SLOWS THE HURRICANE AND TURNS IT NORTH INTO THE
RIDGE. 

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE COMPLEX.  DANIEL CURRENTLY SHOWS GOOD
OUTFLOW EVERYWHERE EXCEPT EASTWARD.  WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
WEST OF THE HURRICANE...LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS THAT THE
LOW WILL WEAKEN AND BE REPLACED BY AN EAST-WEST RIDGE ALONG 15N. 
THIS WOULD ALLOW DANIEL TO MAINTAIN ITSELF.  THE PROBLEM IS THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THE SST ANALYSIS FROM THE NAVY INDICATES THE
HURRICANE IS APPROACHING THE END OF THE 28C WATER. ON THE OTHER
HAND...FOR NO OBVIOUS REASON THE SSTS USED IN THE SHIPS MODEL ARE 2C
WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  THIS ALLOWS THE MODEL TO KEEP THE
WINDS AT 105-115 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE...CALLING FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT
12 HR FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS DANIEL MOVES ALONG THE
SOUTH EDGE OF COOLER WATER.  SHOULD DANIEL TURN MORE NORTHWARD...IT
WOULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/1500Z 14.1N 120.1W   105 KTS
12HR VT     26/0000Z 14.4N 122.7W   115 KTS
24HR VT     26/1200Z 14.7N 125.8W   115 KTS
36HR VT     27/0000Z 14.9N 128.6W   110 KTS
48HR VT     27/1200Z 15.0N 131.0W   105 KTS
72HR VT     28/1200Z 15.5N 135.0W    95 KTS
 
 
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