HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE JUL 25 2000

DANIEL IS EXHIBITING A CLASSIC APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
WITH AN EYE ESTIMATED NEAR 15 N MI IN DIAMETER EMBEDDED IN THE COLD
CLOUD TOPS.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE VIA THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE IS
100 KNOTS...BASED ON A CONSENSUS T NUMBER OF 5.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB.
THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW IS STRONG AND THE ONLY APPARENT
INHIBITING FACTOR FOR STRENGTHENING IS THE SST ALONG THE PROJECTED
TRACK.  THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL RUN SUGGESTS FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING AS
WELL.  HOWEVER...LATER IN THE PERIOD...DANIEL IS LIKELY TO GRADUAL
WEAKEN DUE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES.

A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS
PROVIDING A SWIFT STEERING CURRENT.  INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR
285/18...FASTER THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE 15 TO 20 DEGREES TO THE
WEST OF DANIEL.  THIS FEATURE COULD INDUCE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD WITH THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS SHOW THE MID/UPPER CYCLONE MOVING
WESTWARD AND WEAKENING.  THEREFORE NO SIGNIFICANT TURN TO THE RIGHT
IS EXPECTED...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES SHOW A SLOWING OF THE
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL
IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN WITH TIME.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE TRACK
PRODUCED BY THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL...AND ONLY A SMIDGEON TO THE
NORTH OF THE TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0900Z 14.0N 118.6W   100 KTS
12HR VT     25/1800Z 14.7N 121.3W   110 KTS
24HR VT     26/0600Z 15.0N 124.5W   110 KTS
36HR VT     26/1800Z 15.3N 127.3W   110 KTS
48HR VT     27/0600Z 15.5N 130.0W   100 KTS
72HR VT     28/0600Z 16.0N 134.0W    85 KTS
 
 
NNNN