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HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON JUL 24 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/19 AND THE FORWARD SPEED WAS
ACTUALLY 20 KT FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS.  EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL...ALL OF
THE GUIDANCE SHOW A MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH
SOME DECELERATION.  THE GFDL BECOMES VERY SLOW NORTHWESTWARD AT 72
HOURS.  THIS IS INEXPLICABLE AS MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A RIDGE
HOLDING TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE AND IS
ALMOST THE SAME TRACK AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT JUST A LITTLE
FASTER.

DANIEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH A SMALL EYE PRESENT AND BANDING
WEST...NORTH...AND EAST.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SHOW
STRENGTHENING FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AFTER 36
HOURS BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND AFTER 12 HOURS BY THE GFDL.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE LIKE THE SHIPS MODEL AND SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0300Z 13.7N 117.0W    95 KTS
12HR VT     25/1200Z 14.4N 119.7W   105 KTS
24HR VT     26/0000Z 15.0N 123.0W   105 KTS
36HR VT     26/1200Z 15.0N 125.9W   105 KTS
48HR VT     27/0000Z 15.0N 128.6W   100 KTS
72HR VT     28/0000Z 15.0N 133.0W    90 KTS
 
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