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HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON JUL 24 2000
 
HURRICANE DANIEL HAS DISPLAYED MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT OVERALL APPEARANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO IMPROVE. AN EYE HAS DEVELOPED IN BOTH VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 70
TO 75 KT FROM TAFB...AFWA AND SAB. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO EXCELLENT
IN ALL QUADRANTS WHILE BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE DISTINCT.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 285/18. SOME ACCELERATION AND A SLIGHT POLEWARD
JOG HAS OCCURRED DUE TO POSSIBLE BINARY INTERACTION WITH A MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD MCS THAT DEVELOPED JUST
WEST OF DANIEL. HOWEVER...RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THE MCS
IS WEAKENING AND BEGINNING TO SHEAR OUT INTO AN OUTER CONVECTIVE
BAND. AS A RESULT...WE ANTICIPATE A GENERAL RETURN FROM A 295
DEGREES JOG BACK TO A 285 DEGREE MOTION AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MODEL CONSENSUS OF A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS AND BECOMING MORE
WESTWARD AFTERWARDS BASED ON THE STRONG RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF
DANIEL.
 
DANIEL CONTINUES ITS RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE AND WE EXPECT THAT
TREND TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 18 TO 24 HOURS...WHICH WOULD BRING THE
HURRICANE TO CATEGORY 3 INTENSITY SOMETIME TOMORROW. THE SHIPS MODEL
ONLY BRINGS DANIEL TO 90 KT IN 24 HOURS AND MAINTAINS THAT INTENSITY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHIPS LOWER INTENSITY FORECAST IS MAINLY DUE TO
DANIEL TRACKING OVER MUCH COOLER SSTS...25C TO 26C...AFTER 24 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS
MODEL BASED ON MUCH WARMER SSTS INDICATED IN YESTERDAYS NAVO SST
ANALYSIS AND ALSO NEARBY SHIP REPORTS...28C TO 28.5C SSTS...JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF HURRICANE DANIEL. AFTER 36 HOURS...A GENERAL SLOW
WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST BASED ON DANIEL MOVING OVER 26C TO 27C
SSTS WEST OF 122W LONGITUDE.

FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/2100Z 13.1N 114.7W    75 KTS
12HR VT     25/0600Z 13.6N 116.6W    90 KTS
24HR VT     25/1800Z 14.3N 119.2W   105 KTS
36HR VT     26/0600Z 14.6N 121.6W   105 KTS
48HR VT     26/1800Z 15.0N 124.0W    95 KTS
72HR VT     27/1800Z 15.0N 129.0W    85 KTS
 
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