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TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON JUL 24 2000

DANIEL IS LOOKING MORE IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH VERY
GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT TO THE EAST.  BANDING AND
CENTRAL FEATURES GIVE A SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55
KNOTS.  SINCE VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK OVER THE AREA AND THE WATERS
ARE FAIRLY WARM...CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST A LA THE
SHIPS MODEL.  DANIEL WILL LIKELY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER THIS
MORNING.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING IS
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES
SINCE...WEST OF 120W...SST IS NEAR 26 DEG C ALONG 15N.

MOVEMENT CONTINUES AT ABOUT 280/16.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH
INITIALIZES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE CORRECT LOCATION...MAINTAINS
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A CONTINUED SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF DUE WEST HEADING.  SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS
PREDICTED AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY WEAKER LATER IN THE PERIOD.  THIS FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE TRACKS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0900Z 11.8N 111.6W    55 KTS
12HR VT     24/1800Z 12.2N 114.0W    70 KTS
24HR VT     25/0600Z 12.5N 117.2W    80 KTS
36HR VT     25/1800Z 12.8N 120.0W    90 KTS
48HR VT     26/0600Z 13.0N 122.5W    95 KTS
72HR VT     27/0600Z 13.5N 127.5W    95 KTS
 
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