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TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN JUL 23 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL 280/16.  THE CENTER HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF A 280 DEGREE HEADING BUT THIS IS BELIEVED TO BE A
TEMPORARY WOBBLE.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A CONTINUED MOSTLY
WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH A RIDGE HOLDING TO THE NORTH
OF THE STORM.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH.

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT AT 00Z FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
KGWC.  THERE IS A SMALL PERSISTENT COLD CDO OVER THE CENTER AND A
BANDING FEATURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  ALSO THE SHIP PJPO
IS LOCATED ABOUT 100 N MI NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AT 00Z AND REPORTS
1004.8 MB AND 26 KT...SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE COULD BE
BELOW 1000 MB.  THEREFORE THE 03Z WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 50
KNOTS.  SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE STORM OVER WARM
WATER...THE FORECAST INTENSITY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL AND BRINGS
DANIEL TO A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0300Z 11.6N 109.8W    50 KTS
12HR VT     24/1200Z 12.0N 112.2W    60 KTS
24HR VT     25/0000Z 12.5N 115.5W    70 KTS
36HR VT     25/1200Z 12.5N 118.9W    80 KTS
48HR VT     26/0000Z 12.5N 122.2W    90 KTS
72HR VT     27/0000Z 12.5N 127.5W    90 KTS
  
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