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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2000
 
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ON THE DISTURBANCE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO
SAN LUCAS HAVE REACHED A CONSENSUS 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.
CONVECTION...ALBEIT LIMITED AND NOT THAT DEEP...HAS PERSISTED OVER
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION FOR MOST OF THE LAST 12 HOURS...AND THE
DISTURBANCE IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/15.  THE DEPRESSION SHOULD
CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY COURSE SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE SHALLOW LAYER BAM
CLOSELY.  WITH THE DEPRESSION MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...
DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/2100Z 20.4N 116.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     23/0600Z 21.2N 119.1W    25 KTS
24HR VT     23/1800Z 22.1N 122.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     24/0600Z 22.9N 125.4W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     24/1800Z 23.5N 128.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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