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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU JUL 06 2000
 
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION AND I AM NOT
EVEN SURE IF THERE IS A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME.  IT APPEARS
TO BE AN OPEN TROUGH.  IN FACT...T-NUMBERS ARE 1.0 INDICATING HOW
WEAK THE SYSTEM IS ON IMAGERY.  THE DEPRESSION IS RATHER SMALL AND
WV IMAGES SHOW VERY DRY AIR SURROUNDING IT.  
 
NEITHER THE AVN NOR THE RELIABLE UK MODEL DEVELOPS A TROPICAL
STORM FROM THIS DEPRESSION.  SHIPS KEEPS IT WITH NO CHANGE.

FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS A POORLY
ORGANIZED 25- TO 30-KNOT DEPRESSION MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY.   SOME INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION MAY OCCUR WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.  
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0300Z 13.0N 122.4W    25 KTS
12HR VT     07/1200Z 13.0N 124.0W    25 KTS
24HR VT     08/0000Z 13.0N 126.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     08/1200Z 13.5N 128.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     09/0000Z 14.0N 130.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     10/0000Z 14.5N 134.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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