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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU JUL 06 2000
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WELL TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS HAS BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED AND IS
NOW BEING NUMBERED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E. VERTICAL SHEAR IS
WEAK OVER THE SYSTEM AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINALLY
WARM ENOUGH FOR STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SO LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY
DURING THE SHORT TERM.

INITIAL MOTION IS 270/10. WE HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE CLIPER AND
BAMM MODELS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BASED ON THE STRENGTH AND
HORIZONTAL EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM...A CONTINUED MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION IS IMPLIED.
 
FORECASTER STEWART/PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/2100Z 12.9N 121.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     07/0600Z 13.0N 123.3W    30 KTS
24HR VT     07/1800Z 13.2N 125.3W    35 KTS
36HR VT     08/0600Z 13.6N 127.4W    40 KTS
48HR VT     08/1800Z 14.0N 129.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     09/1800Z 14.5N 133.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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