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HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI JUN 23 2000
 
CARLOTTA STILL SHOWS EYEWALL CONVECTION AND THE HINT OF AN EYE IN
VISIBLE...INFRARED...AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY THIS EVENING. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT...SO THE CYCLONE
WILL REMAIN A MINIMAL HURRICANE FOR THIS ADVISORY.

CARLOTTA IS MOVING 315/14 ON THE WEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR OR JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. LARGE-
SCALE GUIDANCE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST...AND IF
CARLOTTA WERE OVER WARM WATER IT WOULD LIKELY RECURVE ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE LOW. SINCE THE WATER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE
ARE LESS THAN 20C...THE RESULT IS LIKELY TO BE DEATH BEFORE
RECURVATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAIN FAVORABLE...THE COLD WATER ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD CAUSE CARLOTTA TO DISSIPATE. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR THIS IN 48 HR...BUT IT COULD OCCUR BEFORE THEN.

SHOWERS AND ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA COULD
STILL OCCUR ALONG SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0300Z 21.8N 113.2W    65 KTS
12HR VT     24/1200Z 23.1N 114.6W    55 KTS
24HR VT     25/0000Z 24.7N 116.4W    35 KTS
36HR VT     25/1200Z 26.3N 117.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     26/0000Z 27.5N 118.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     27/0000Z DISSIPATED 
 
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