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HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI JUN 23 2000

CARLOTTA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO 65 KNOTS.  THIS IS BASED ON DECREASING CONVECTION
WHICH RESULTED IN LOWER T-NUMBERS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS INDICATED.
 
THE FLOW AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO STEER CARLOTTA TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON A TRACK PARALLEL
TO BAJA CALIFORNIA...AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  MOST
THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN 48 HOURS OR SO.  ALTHOUGH
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED ...SHOWERS AND ROUGH
SURF CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ALONG SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/2100Z 20.7N 111.9W    65 KTS
12HR VT     24/0600Z 21.9N 113.3W    55 KTS
24HR VT     24/1800Z 23.5N 115.0W    35 KTS
36HR VT     25/0600Z 25.0N 116.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     25/1800Z 26.5N 118.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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