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HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI JUN 23 2000
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT CARLOTTA IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY WHILE
MOVING OVER COOL WATERS BUT STILL REMAINS AS A SMALL AND COMPACT
HURRICANE. MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 75 KNOTS AND FURTHER
WEAKENING IS INDICATED.  THIS CONSISTENT WITH INTENSITY GUIDANCE. IN
FACT...SHIPS DISSIPATES CARLOTTA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
THE FLOW AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO STEER CARLOTTA TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON A TRACK PARALLEL
TO BAJA CALIFORNIA...AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  BECAUSE
CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.  A COUPLE OF
TRACK MODELS BRING CARLOTTA TO NEAR CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT BY THEN...CARLOTTA MAY JUST BE A
DISSIPATING SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/1500Z 19.8N 110.9W    75 KTS
12HR VT     24/0000Z 21.0N 112.0W    55 KTS
24HR VT     24/1200Z 22.5N 113.5W    35 KTS
36HR VT     25/0000Z 24.0N 114.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     25/1200Z 25.0N 115.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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