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HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI JUN 23 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 305/10.  A 500 MB LOW NEAR
CALIFORNIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD IS CAUSING MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE MODELS TO MOVE THE HURRICANE ON A NORTHWEST TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  THE NOGAPS MODEL IS
THE FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODELS BRINGING THE CENTER ACROSS
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE UKMET REMAINS WELL
OFFSHORE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM AFTER 48
HOURS.  THE GFDL DISSIPATES BY 48 HOURS AND IS BETWEEN THE NOGAPS
AND UKMET.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE THREE AND IS
SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  EVEN THOUGH THE HURRICANE
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOME 175 N MI OFFSHORE..THE GOVERNMENT OF
MEXICO HAS DECIDED TO ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY SO
FAR...AS THERE IS STILL A SMALL COLD CDO WITH A POSSIBLE HINT OF AN
EYE REMNANT.  BUT CARLOTTA IS NEARING COLD WATER AND WEAKENING IS
FORECAST TO COMMENCE SHORTLY AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THE HURRICANE
COULD BE REDUCED TO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS BY 72 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0900Z 18.9N 110.0W    95 KTS
12HR VT     23/1800Z 19.9N 111.3W    85 KTS
24HR VT     24/0600Z 21.6N 112.6W    70 KTS
36HR VT     24/1800Z 23.2N 113.9W    60 KTS
48HR VT     25/0600Z 25.0N 115.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     26/0600Z 26.5N 116.5W    25 KTS
 
 
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