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HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU JUN 22 2000
 
AS EXPECTED...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING DURING THE DAY AND
IT IS NOW 95 KNOTS.  THE WHITE COLD RING ON THE BD DVORAK CURVE THAT
WAS SURROUNDING THE FILLING EYE IS PRACTICALLY GONE. BECAUSE THERE
ARE STILL A FEW HOURS BEFORE CARLOTTA REACHES COOLER WATERS...SOME
ADDITIONAL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BUT...THE GENERAL
TREND IS TOWARD WEAKENING.
 
CARLOTTA CONTINUES RIGHT ON TRACK...310/8...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MEXICO.  MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THE STRUCTURE AND LOCATION OF THIS HIGH
WILL NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  THEREFORE...CARLOTTA SHOULD CONTINUE
ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  GDFL/AVN
DERIVED TRACKS CONTINUE A LITTLE BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE MAIN
ENSEMBLE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  WORST OF ALL APPEARS TO BE THE
MM5....WHICH MOVES CARLOTTA SOUTHWARD.
 
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES THE CORE OF CARLOTTA FAR ENOUGH
FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
FORECAST...ALL INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
CARLOTTA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/2100Z 17.5N 108.3W    95 KTS
12HR VT     23/0600Z 18.3N 109.0W    85 KTS
24HR VT     23/1800Z 19.3N 110.0W    75 KTS
36HR VT     24/0600Z 20.5N 111.5W    65 KTS
48HR VT     24/1800Z 21.5N 113.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     25/1800Z 23.5N 117.0W    35 KTS
 
 
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