ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED JUN 21 2000
THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHILE ITS
SURROUNDING RING OF CONVECTION IS WARMING AND ERODING. CONSEQUENTLY
ALL T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 125 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND AS CARLOTTA APPROACHES
COOLER WATERS. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE.
CARLOTTA HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST...AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF A WARM HIGH OVER MEXICO WHICH IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONCE AGAIN...THE GFDL
1200Z RUN SHARPLY TURNS CARLOTTA NORTHWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA
BUT THAT IS NOT THE CASE WITH THE GFDN...WHICH RUNS OFF THE NOGAPS
ANALYSIS. THE LATTER SUGGESTS A TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST BUT STILL TO
THE NORTH OF THE OTHER MODELS.
HIGH WAVES AND BANDS OF HEAVY RAINS FROM THE PERIPHERY OF CARLOTTA
ARE STILL AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/2100Z 15.8N 105.6W 125 KTS
12HR VT 22/0600Z 16.0N 106.7W 115 KTS
24HR VT 22/1800Z 16.5N 108.2W 105 KTS
36HR VT 23/0600Z 17.0N 110.0W 95 KTS
48HR VT 23/1800Z 18.0N 112.0W 75 KTS
72HR VT 24/1800Z 20.5N 117.0W 55 KTS
NNNN
Problems?