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HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED JUN 21 2000
 
ALTHOUGH OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN
CONTINUE AROUND 7.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...THE SUBJECTIVE NUMBERS
FROM TAFB...SAB AND GLOBAL ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE.  THE EYE IS
STILL SHARP ON VISIBLE IMAGES BUT THE SURROUNDING RING OF
CONVECTION...WHITE ON THE BD CURVE...IS GRADUALLY SHRINKING.
CARLOTTA CONTINUES AS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 130 KNOTS BUT
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS
OR SO.  THEREAFTER...COOLER WATER AHEAD OF THE STORM IS THE ONLY
APPARENT INHIBITING FACTOR...ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL.  OTHER
FACTORS FOR INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS SUCH AS INNER CORE STRUCTURE
CHANGES...ARE NOT EASY TO EVALUATE AND MUCH LESS TO FORECAST.
 
THE MOTION HAS BEEN BASICALLY 280/08...LIKE MOST OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES.  THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A PERSISTENT STRONG WARM HIGH OVER MEXICO.
ONCE AGAIN...THE UK MODEL HAS BEEN OUTSTANDING AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS BASICALLY ON TOP OF IT.  THE GFDL CONTINUES TO BE THE
OUTLIER...TURNING CARLOTTA NORTHWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA.
 
BANDS OF HEAVY RAINS FROM THE PERIPHERY OF CARLOTTA AND HIGH WAVES
ARE STILL AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/1500Z 15.6N 105.1W   130 KTS
12HR VT     22/0000Z 15.8N 106.3W   130 KTS
24HR VT     22/1200Z 16.3N 108.0W   125 KTS
36HR VT     23/0000Z 17.0N 110.0W   120 KTS
48HR VT     23/1200Z 18.0N 112.5W   100 KTS
72HR VT     24/1200Z 20.5N 117.0W    70 KTS
 
 
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