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HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED JUN 21 2000
 
CARLOTTA HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY...WITH A WELL-DEFINED COLD CDO
AROUND A 15-20 NM WIDE EYE. EXACTLY HOW STRONG IT IS REMAINS A
PROBLEM. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...INCLUDING THE OBJECTIVE
TECHNIQUE FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN...ARE ALL NEAR 140 KT.
HOWEVER...THESE ESTIMATES WERE STRONGER THAN WHAT THE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THIS IS STILL
THE CASE...THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 130 KT.

CARLOTTA HAS WOBBLED A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/8. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN
EITHER THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OR THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST
24 HR. A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO SHOULD
STEER CARLOTTA GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL STILL CALLS
FOR AN UNLIKELY TRACK TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
UKMET...WHICH HAS DONE A GOOD JOB ON CARLOTTA SO FAR.

DURING THE LAST HR OR SO...THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT WARMING OF THE
CLOUD TOPS...COOLING OF THE EYE...AND DECREASE IN THE OBJECTIVE T-
NUMBERS FROM 7.2 TO 6.8. THIS SUGGESTS THAT CARLOTTA MAY BE PEAKING.
U.S. NAVY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSES INDICATE THE WEST EDGE OF
28C OR WARMER WATER IS NEAR 105W...AND CARLOTTA MAY BE FEELING THE
NEARBY COLDER WATER. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY
FAVORABLE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IN
THE FIRST 12 HR...IF FOR NO OTHER REASON THAN THE WINDS CATCHING UP
WITH THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. AFTER THAT...PROGRESSIVELY COLDER
WATER SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING.

ALTHOUGH THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A TIGHT WIND FIELD WITH SMALL 34 KT
WIND RADII...TWO SHIPS 250 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ARE
REPORTING 30 KT WINDS...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES OUTER BANDS
FORMING IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE. THUS THERE IS A CHANCE THE WIND
FIELD IS SPREADING OUT. HOPEFULLY A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS NEAR 13Z WILL
SHED MORE LIGHT ON THIS.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/0900Z 15.1N 104.2W   130 KTS
12HR VT     21/1800Z 15.3N 105.5W   135 KTS
24HR VT     22/0600Z 15.8N 107.2W   130 KTS
36HR VT     22/1800Z 16.4N 109.1W   120 KTS
48HR VT     23/0600Z 17.0N 111.0W   100 KTS
72HR VT     24/0600Z 19.0N 115.0W    75 KTS
 
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