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HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE JUN 20 2000
 
THE INTENSITY OF CARLOTTA IS A MOVING TARGET THIS EVENING AS THE
HURRICANE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING AT AN AMAZING RATE.  THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIRST ENTERED THE HURRICANE AT 19Z...AND
FOUND A 977 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE WITH ABOUT 80 KT OF SURFACE WIND. 
OVER THE NEXT THREE HOURS...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FELL TO 970 MB AND
THE SURFACE WINDS INCREASED TO AT LEAST 95 KT.  INTERESTINGLY...
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT THE TIME OF THE FIRST RECON FIX
WERE ABOUT 20 KT TOO HIGH.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE SATELLITE
ESTIMATES HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE.  AT 00Z...THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS WERE A CONSENSUS 115 KT.  HOWEVER...THE UNIVERSITY
OF WISCONSIN OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUE HAS BEEN GIVING AN ESTIMATE OF
ABOUT 135 KT FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THIS MAKES CARLOTTA A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
SCALE.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL SUGGESTS THAT CARLOTTA
HAS SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING TO DO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS SUIT.  AFTER 24 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER
WATERS AND SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE FORECAST TRACK...WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR
TO THE UKMET AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/0300Z 15.2N 103.4W   115 KTS
12HR VT     21/1200Z 15.4N 104.8W   125 KTS
24HR VT     22/0000Z 15.8N 106.5W   130 KTS
36HR VT     22/1200Z 16.3N 108.4W   120 KTS
48HR VT     23/0000Z 17.0N 110.5W   100 KTS
72HR VT     24/0000Z 19.0N 114.5W    75 KTS
 
 
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