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HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE JUN 20 2000
 
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THERE IS A PERSISTENT
POORLY-DEFINED EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...
SAB...AND AFWA ARE 77 KT...77 KT...AND 65 KT RESPECTIVELY. THE
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IT IS
NOTABLE THAT MOST IMAGES FROM THE MEXICAN RADAR AT ACAPULCO HAVE
SHOWN ONLY 50-60% OF AN EYEWALL AROUND THE EYE DURING THE NIGHT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/11. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE
MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR MAZATLAN MEXICO AND A
TROUGH N OF 20N BETWEEN 115W-120W. LARGE SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THESE
FEATURES SHOULD PERSIST TO SOME DEGREE FOR THE NEXT 72 HR. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CARLOTTA TO MAINTAIN A WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION. DESPITE THE AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...NHC
TRACK GUIDANCE IS RATHER DIVERGENT. WHILE MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
AGREES ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...THE GFDL...
GFDN...AND AVN MOVE THE HURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD. THE GFDL IS THE
EXTREME OUTLIER...MOVING THE SYSTEM NEAR CABO CORRIENTES AND THEN
INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH AND THE CURRENT TRENDS...THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND NHC91.

CARLOTTA SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE...AND THAT
COMBINED WITH INCREASED CONVECTION FAVORS ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.
THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR 100 KT IN 24 HR. WHILE THAT IS POSSIBLE...
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE A MORE CONSERVATIVE 90 KT. BY 36
HR...CARLOTTA WILL BE MOVING INTO COLDER WATER IN THE SAME GENERAL
AREA WHERE ALETTA AND BUD DIED. A STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN
AROUND THAT TIME.
 
THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE MEXICAN COAST IS DISCONTINUED AT THIS
TIME. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER TODAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0900Z 14.3N 100.8W    75 KTS
12HR VT     20/1800Z 14.6N 102.6W    85 KTS
24HR VT     21/0600Z 15.0N 104.5W    90 KTS
36HR VT     21/1800Z 15.5N 106.4W    90 KTS
48HR VT     22/0600Z 16.0N 108.0W    80 KTS
72HR VT     23/0600Z 17.5N 111.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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