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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN JUN 18 2000
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY
WITH AN IMPRESSIVE CDO FORMING.  SOME SHIPS IN THE AREA ALSO CONFIRM
THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION.  THE SHIP 4XGT REPORTED 35
KNOTS AT 18Z ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED LOCATION OF THE
CENTER.  THIS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH AS THE ACCOMPANYING SEA HEIGHT OF
26 FEET IS SUSPICIOUS.  SO THE SYSTEM IS STARTED AS A DEPRESSION BUT
FORECAST TO A STORM IN 12 HOURS.  THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE SYSTEM
TO A HURRICANE IN 60 HOURS BUT THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS SHOW A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM AS THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO BE WITHIN ABOUT 75 MILES
OF THE COAST AND THIS COULD LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/08.  ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CENTER A SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE OF THE COAST
THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES THE SAME.  THE TRACK
IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AT THIS TIME.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/2100Z 12.7N  94.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     19/0600Z 13.4N  95.3W    40 KTS
24HR VT     19/1800Z 14.3N  96.7W    50 KTS
36HR VT     20/0600Z 15.0N  98.3W    55 KTS
48HR VT     20/1800Z 15.7N  99.8W    55 KTS
72HR VT     21/1800Z 16.5N 103.0W    55 KTS
 
 
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