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TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU JUN 15 2000
 
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT EAST OF THE CENTER OF BUD OVER THE
PAST SIX HR EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE IS OVER 24C-25C SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE. SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM SAB...TAFB...AND AFWA ARE 45
KT...35 KT...AND 35 KT. WITH THE CONVECTIVE INCREASE...THE MAXIMUM
WINDS REMAIN 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 330/6. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S....WITH RIDGING OVER
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WEST OF THE TROUGH AND BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND
BUD. LARGE SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE TROUGH SHOULD STAY NORTH OF
BUD...WITH WEAK RIDGING REMAINING BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THIS IN
THEORY SHOULD CAUSE A WESTWARD TURN. DESPITE THIS AGREEMENT...THE
TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY DIVERGENT. THE NHC91...BAMD...AND LBAR
CALL FOR A CONTINUED NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 72 HR. THE BAMM...
BAMS...AND AVN TURN BUD WESTWARD AFTER 24 HR...WHILE THE GFDL...
GFDN...NOGAPS...AND UKMET CALL FOR ERRATIC MOTION NEAR THE CURRENT
POSITION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW TURN TO THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST AFTER 24 HR AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WESTWARD-
MOVING MODELS AND THE ERRATIC MOTION MODELS.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE...AND IF BUD WERE OVER
WARMER WATER IT WOULD PROBABLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE. SINCE IT
IS OVER COLD WATER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED SLOW
WEAKENING. DISSIPATION IS FORECAST IN 48 TO 72 HR...BUT IT COULD
OCCUR SOONER THAN THAT.
 
THE RADII OF 12 FT SEAS HAS BEEN EXPANDED ON THE BASIS OF SHIP
REPORTS.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0300Z 20.0N 111.4W    40 KTS
12HR VT     16/1200Z 20.4N 111.8W    35 KTS
24HR VT     17/0000Z 20.5N 112.4W    30 KTS
36HR VT     17/1200Z 20.3N 112.8W    25 KTS
48HR VT     18/0000Z 20.0N 113.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED 
 
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