HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU JUN 15 2000

TROPICAL STORM BUD IS LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND. THE
00Z UPPER AIR OBSERVATION FROM SOCORRO ISLAND IMPLIED A SURFACE
PRESSURE OF 1000 MB WITH THE CENTER 90 NM AWAY. AS A RESULT OF
THIS...THE ADVISORY PRESSURE IS LOWERED TO 995 MB. THIS DOES NOT
REPRESENT STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT
AT 45 KT BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/6. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DIVERGENCE AMONG THE DYNAMIC MODELS WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL
INDICATING LITTLE MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THE BAM MODELS
CONTINUING TO SHOW NW TO W MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A SLOW WESTWARD
TRACK IS FORECAST BASED ON SHALLOW LAYER STEERING AS THE CONVECTION
WEAKENS.

THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER MARGINAL SSTS AND GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS INTENSITY
GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER STEWART/FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/1500Z 19.1N 110.7W    45 KTS
12HR VT     16/0000Z 19.5N 110.9W    45 KTS
24HR VT     16/1200Z 20.0N 111.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     17/0000Z 20.0N 111.3W    35 KTS
48HR VT     17/1200Z 20.0N 111.5W    30 KTS
72HR VT     18/1200Z 20.0N 112.0W    25 KTS

NNNN