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TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED JUN 14 2000
 
BUD HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6 HR...
WITH MOST DEEP CONVECTION NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE
45 KT...45 KT...AND 35 KT RESPECTIVELY. THUS...THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY
REMAINS 45 KT.

THE CENTER IS STILL A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO TRACK...AND THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION IS 330/7. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF BUD...WHILE LARGE-SCALE MODEL
ANALYSES SUGGEST SOME WEAKNESS AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 72
HR...WHICH WOULD ALLOW BUD TO SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY TURN NORTHWARD.
TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THE AVN-BASED GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A WESTWARD TURN AFTER 24 TO 36 HR.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE NOGAPS. THE GFDL CALLS FOR A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION FOR 24 HR FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE EAST. THE UKMET TURNS THE
CYCLONE EASTWARD AFTER 36 HR. THE GFDN FORECAST AGREES BEST WITH THE
SYNOPTIC SITUATION ...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGREES BEST WITH IT.
THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BUD SHOULD CROSS THE 26C SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 12 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS
FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...FOLLOWED BY A
STEADY WEAKENING. GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE AND GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...BUD IS LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER LONGER THAN
NORMAL OVER THE COLDER WATER. HENCE...THIS FORECAST DOES NOT CALL
FOR DISSIPATION.
 
THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE TROPICAL STORM VERY CLOSE TO SOCORRO
ISLAND IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0300Z 17.9N 110.4W    45 KTS
12HR VT     15/1200Z 18.8N 111.0W    50 KTS
24HR VT     16/0000Z 19.7N 111.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     16/1200Z 20.3N 111.7W    45 KTS
48HR VT     17/0000Z 21.0N 111.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     18/0000Z 21.5N 111.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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