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TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE JUN 13 2000
 
A REPORT OF 40 KNOTS AND 1001 MB FROM THE SHIP KAOU...ALONG WITH A
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF STORM STRENGTH FROM TAFB AND KGWC...AND SOME
QUICKSCAT WINDS OF 35 KNOTS EARLIER TODAY...ARE THE BASIS FOR
UPGRADING THIS SYSTEM TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH 40 KNOT WINDS.  WITH
THE RECENT APPEARANCE OF A COLD CDO FEATURE AND NO ADVERSE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...THE WIND SPEED IS FORECAST TO 60 KNOTS IN
24 HOURS.  THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A LEVELING OFF OF INTENSITY AFTER
24 HOURS AND THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND
SPEED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS...SO THE FORECAST STRENGHTENING IS
LIMITED TO 60 KNOTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/08.  THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED...BUT THE GFDL AND UKMET SLOW THE STORM CONSIDERABLY WITH A
SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
LEFT OF...BUT SIMILAR TO...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH A MOSTLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND SOME DECELERATION.  

THE SHIP KAOU WAS ABOUT 12O N MI NORTHEAST OF THE STORM CENTER AT
THE TIME OF THE REPORT DESCRIBED ABOVE AND THE 34-KNOT WIND RADIUS
IS PUT AT 150 N MI FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0300Z 14.8N 109.2W    40 KTS
12HR VT     14/1200Z 14.9N 110.3W    50 KTS
24HR VT     15/0000Z 15.7N 112.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     15/1200Z 16.4N 113.3W    60 KTS
48HR VT     16/0000Z 16.9N 114.3W    60 KTS
72HR VT     17/0000Z 17.5N 115.5W    55 KTS
 
 
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