HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI MAY 26 2000
 
ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE REDEVELOPING...SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS ON A WEAKENING TREND.  BOTH SSMI
AND TRMM CLEARLY SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION.  INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 65 KNOTS AT
THIS TIME.      

ALETTA HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS
AND LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED.  HOWEVER...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD
BEGIN A SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER
GENERAL AGREEMENT MOVING ALETTA WITH A WESTWARD COMPONENT.  THIS
MOTION WOULD TAKE ALETTA CLOSER TO COOLER WATERS.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/2100Z 14.9N 108.0W    65 KTS
12HR VT     27/0600Z 15.0N 108.2W    60 KTS
24HR VT     27/1800Z 15.5N 108.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     28/0600Z 15.5N 108.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     28/1800Z 16.0N 109.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     29/1800Z 16.5N 110.5W    40 KTS
 
 
NNNN