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HURRICANE ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU MAY 25 2000
 
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH
NORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE PRODUCED UNFAVORABLE SHEAR OVER
ALETTA.  LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE
CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS BECOMING EXPOSED AND IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  A WEAKENING TREND MAY HAVE JUST
BEGUN AND WE SHOULD GIVE CREDIT TO THE AVN AND THE GFDL MODELS WHICH
HAVE BEEN INDICATING SO DURING THE PAST DAY OR TWO.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE CONSTRAINED BY THE DVORAK RULES BUT DATA-T
NUMBERS ARE ALREADY DECREASING.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING ADJUSTED
TO 85 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.  BECAUSE THE SHEAR MAY RELAX AND THE OCEAN
IS WARM...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE HURRICANE REGAINS STRENGTH
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.   FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS
THE HURRICANE WITH THE SAME INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOUR WITH A
GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.  SHIPS MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO WEAKEN
ALETTA TOO.
  
ALETTA HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO AND THE
CENTER MAY BE A LITTLE BIT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION. AS
SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL...UKMET AND NOGAPS...LITTLE MOTION OR A SMALL
WESTWARD DRIFT IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/2100Z 15.0N 107.5W    80 KTS
12HR VT     26/0600Z 15.0N 107.5W    80 KTS
24HR VT     26/1800Z 15.0N 108.0W    80 KTS
36HR VT     27/0600Z 15.0N 108.3W    75 KTS
48HR VT     27/1800Z 15.0N 108.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     28/1800Z 15.0N 108.7W    65 KTS
 
 
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