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HURRICANE ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU MAY 25 2000

INFRARED IMAGES SHOW A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL CLOUD PATTERN OF STRONG
CONVECTION AROUND THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  EVEN THOUGH CIRRUS-LEVEL
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT INHIBITED TO THE EAST...OVERALL THE
SYSTEM APPEARS WELL-ORGANIZED.  USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE WITH THE
EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN YIELDS A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 90
KNOTS WHICH WILL BE USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.  IT IS RATHER UNUSUAL TO
HAVE SUCH A STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE EAST PACIFIC DURING THE
MONTH OF MAY.  SOME MORE INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR TODAY BUT SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL GRADUALLY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

THE SLOW WESTWARD MOTION CONTINUES...ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 280/07. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC VORTICITY
MAXIMUM NEAR THE BAJA/U.S. BORDER WITH AN ACCOMPANYING TROUGH
EXTENDED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES.  THIS FEATURE
IS ERODING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ALETTA...SO THE STEERING
CURRENT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN FURTHER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
OUR COLLECTION OF TRACK PREDICTION MODELS IS NOT TERRIBLY USEFUL IN
THIS CASE...SINCE IT SHOWS POSSIBLE MOTIONS ANYWHERE FROM
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THOSE FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES AND SHOWS A
VERY SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE PERIOD.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0900Z 15.1N 107.7W    90 KTS
12HR VT     25/1800Z 15.3N 108.5W    95 KTS
24HR VT     26/0600Z 15.4N 109.0W    95 KTS
36HR VT     26/1800Z 15.5N 109.5W    90 KTS
48HR VT     27/0600Z 15.7N 110.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     28/0600Z 16.0N 111.0W    75 KTS
 
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