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HURRICANE ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED MAY 24 2000
HURRICANE ALETTA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE
DVORAK T4.5 (75 KT) AND T4.0 (65 KT)...RESPECTIVELY. VISIBLE IMAGERY
ALSO INDICATES A CLOUD-FILLED EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT OVER THE PAST
2 HOURS AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY A 30 NM DIAMETER EYE SHOWN IN A
1609Z TRMM OVERPASS IMAGE. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE INCREASED THE
INTENSITY SLIGHTLY. OUTFLOW IS MAINLY CONFINED TO ONE POLEWARD
CHANNEL...BUT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE CIRCULAR AND SYMMETRICAL
ALSO SUGGESTING SOME STRENGTHENING HAS OCCURRED. THE SHIPS INTENSITY
MODEL INDICATES SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 88 KT THROUGH 48
HOURS AND THEN LEVELS OFF AFTER THAT. WE HAVE FOLLOWED THAT TREND
THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH SLIGHT WEAKENING BY 72 HOURS BASED ON ALETTA
REMAINING OVER WARM SSTS AND IN WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.
CURRENT MOTION IS 280/05. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE AMONG THE
MODELS. WE ARE NOT READY TO BUY OFF ON THE UKMET AND GFDL SOLUTIONS
OF SLIGHT RECURVATURE SINCE THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT AFTER 36 HOURS ALLOWING THE MEXICAN
WARM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD. AS A RESULT...WE ARE
FORECASTING A SLIGHT POLEWARD BEND IN THE TRACK AND DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL TURN
BACK TO THE WEST AFTER 48 HOURS.
FORECASTER STEWART/AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/2100Z 15.0N 106.1W 70 KTS
12HR VT 25/0600Z 15.2N 106.8W 75 KTS
24HR VT 25/1800Z 15.5N 107.5W 80 KTS
36HR VT 26/0600Z 15.8N 108.2W 85 KTS
48HR VT 26/1800Z 16.0N 109.0W 85 KTS
72HR VT 27/1800Z 16.0N 109.5W 80 KTS
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