HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED MAY 24 2000

SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST-TYPE
FEATURE BUT BANDING IS NOT EASILY DISCERNIBLE ON THE IR IMAGERY. 
VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS...COLDER THAN -80C...PERSIST OVER THE ESTIMATED
CENTER.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AGREE ON A CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING INHIBITED TO
THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT THERE IS STILL
SOME SLIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA.  ASIDE FROM THAT...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO FAVOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING. 
THEREFORE ALETTA IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH THE
STATISTICAL/ DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODEL...SHIPS.

A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION...NEAR 6 KNOTS...CONTINUES.  GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH TO THE NORTH
OF ALETTA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS WOULD LEAD TO A FURTHER
DECREASE OF THE STEERING CURRENT.  TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE GIVING
DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS...WHICH TYPICALLY OCCURS WHEN STEERING BECOMES
ILL-DEFINED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO ITS PREDECESSOR...
AND SLOWS THE FORWARD SPEED TO A CRAWL.   
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0900Z 14.6N 104.7W    55 KTS
12HR VT     24/1800Z 14.6N 105.4W    65 KTS
24HR VT     25/0600Z 14.7N 106.0W    70 KTS
36HR VT     25/1800Z 14.8N 106.6W    75 KTS
48HR VT     26/0600Z 14.9N 107.0W    80 KTS
72HR VT     27/0600Z 15.0N 107.5W    80 KTS
 
NNNN