HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON MAY 22 2000
 
FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND SHIP REPORTS
INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF ACAPULCO HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE FIRST OF THE
2000 EAST PACIFIC SEASON.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 295/11...NOT FAR FROM THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER
THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM OFF THE MEXICAN
COAST.  IN THE LONGER RANGE...A MAJOR TROUGH OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
COAST COULD INDUCE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK IF THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS
AS FORECAST.  

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT.  THE PRESENTATION ON
BOTH IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN IMPROVING THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING...WITH BANDING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION BUT
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEAST EDGE.  IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...
THE DEPRESSION WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH LATER TODAY.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/1500Z 13.5N  99.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     23/0000Z 14.3N 101.2W    40 KTS
24HR VT     23/1200Z 15.1N 103.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     24/0000Z 15.7N 105.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     24/1200Z 16.5N 107.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     25/1200Z 17.5N 110.0W    65 KTS
 
 
NNNN